| dc.description.abstract | Study Region: The Upper catchments of the Nzoia River basin in
western Kenya.
Study Focus: The potential streamflow responses to climate change
in the upper Nzoia River basin are studied. The Soil and Water
Assessment Tool(SWAT) was forced withmonthly temperature and
precipitation change scenarios for the periods 2011–2040 (2020s),
2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s). Data from 10 climate
models and three greenhouse gases emission scenarios was downscaled using the delta change method and used in the SWAT model.
Streamflow data for the periods 1986–1998 and 1973–1985 was
used for model calibration and validation respectively.
New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Comparison between
the simulated baseline and future streamflow shows that in the
Koitobos and Kimilili watersheds, August to December streamflow
is likely to be highly altered. In the Kuywa watershed, March to
June flows is likely to change considerably due to climate change.
Major streamflow changes are likely in March to June and August
to November in the Rongai watershed. Projected changes differed
between the four watersheds despite their proximity, indicating
different sensitivities to climate change and uncertainty about the
potential hydrological impacts of climate change in the area. | en_US |
